97 posts tagged “iraq”
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Crossposted from Counter Terrorism Blog
By Walid Phares
Now that President Obama and his aides have announced their plan for U.S. withdrawal from Iraq by August 31, 2010, they must consider what the forces engaged against the Coalition and Iraqi Government plan to do in this time. For the Iranian and Syrian regimes, as well as al Qaeda and other Jihadist groups, can affect the U.S. withdrawal plan.
Per senior U.S. officials, the Iraq war will unilaterally come to an end on August 31, 2010 unless dramatic developments force another strategy. As President Bush declared “mission accomplished” after the removal of Saddam in 2003, President Obama has now declared the end of “all counter-insurgency missions,” by 2010. After that date, from the 142,000 Marines and Army personnel, some 35,000 to 50,000 troops will remain and would be ready to deploy in counter-terrorism missions. Under the “Status of Forces Agreement” with the Iraqi government, all American forces must be removed by December 31, 2011.
After August of next year the mission of U.S. (and possibly some coalition) forces will be to:
1) Train, equip and advise Iraqi security forces.
2) Support civilian operations in Iraq aimed at reconstruction, redevelopment and political reconciliation.
3) Conduct targeted counter-terrorism missions.
At first sight, the plan seems sound and answers a main requirement of U.S. strategy: Maintaining political gains made by the Iraqi political process and pursuing the fight against al Qaeda and other terror groups.
But the public and legislators should realize that for the next stage to be successful, Iraq must be able to withstand any future pressures by the “enemy.”
If the terrorist forces operating against the Coalition and the Iraqi Government are to vanish as soon as the U.S. pulls out, the withdrawal plan (any version of it) will be smooth and successful. It would be merely a question of logistical management.
But any strategist must ask: what if the other side won’t cooperate? What if al Qaeda and its Salafist ilk, as well as the Pasdaran, the Quds force, Hezbollah, and the intelligence services of Tehran and Damascus decide otherwise? What if they will continue the operations from now till August 2010, and after that date, endlessly?
A logical U.S. response would be to focus on enabling Iraqis to fight the counter insurgency war against the “foes” and grow their capacity until withdrawal D-Day 18 months from now. By the magical date of August 31, 2010, Iraq’s own forces should be able to control their county. The role of the U.S. expeditionary force should be to wage counter terrorism missions in support of the Iraqi armed forces if the insurgency will continue pass that date.
It is very hard to predict what all of our “foes” in Iraq will do. The easiest guess is about al Qaeda and the other Jihadists. All their literature and statements, as well as actions on the ground, show that these forces will continue their attacks regardless of both American and Iraqi planning. The Salafi combat groups, despite their containment by the Sahwa campaign and by counter insurgency activities, have the Sunni Triangle in sight for as long as the “will of Allah” prevails. Hence their aggression against Iraq’s population and institutions is expected to last as long as their ideology and ideologues would also last.
Just as important to the Jihadists are their strategic lines into Iraq. The Jihadists are crossing the Syrian borders constantly and they are backed by ideological and financial circles inside Iraq’s southern neighbor, Saudi Arabia. Thus the success of the Obama plan will hinge on the capacity of his Administration to stop the flow of Jihadism from Syria and Saudi Arabia.
A more complex prediction is about Iran’s plan for a post U.S. withdrawal. Many in Washington today are excited to report that realism will prevail in Tehran as soon as the Obama Administration will “sit” with the Mullahs’ regime and “talk” — some even say “listen.” In short, somehow the group coined recently as the “Iran Lobby in the U.S.” is arguing that withdrawal plans will get no opposition from Iran. Everything will go smoothly and Iraq will be able to control its eastern border, pro-Iranian groups notwithstanding.
I believe otherwise. Iran’s leadership will sit down, talk, and sometimes listen — but it will at the same time continue its actions on the ground until it fulfills its own “mission.” What is that mission? To penetrate, influence and seize 60% of Iraq from Baghdad to Basra as U.S. forces are withdrawing and certainly after the pull out. They will use all the power elements at their disposal: special groups, the Mahdi Army, assassinations, infiltration in Government, etc. Ironically, the pro-Iranian action against U.S. presence will intensify further after August 2010 to hasten the final withdrawal of counter insurgency forces left behind. So in a sense the success of the Obama plan will hinge on the American ability to deter Iran — and its ally Syria — from surging against Iraq’s Democracy while the U.S. is organizing its departure.
Is the 2010 plan doomed? Not at all: It is actually a challenging one and could be successful but is conditioned by the greater context. Withdrawing the bulk of U.S. forces from Iraq after five years of deployment is long overdue, especially if the troops will be used on other fronts. Vice President Biden recently said the Iranians may be surprised where many of these forces would be used. The Obama plan can work if his Administration will move quickly to deter both Tehran and Damascus from filling the void in Iraq. This is the secret equation hovering over all three plans the President has to choose from. If asked, I would advise the shortest stay for the bulk of U.S. forces in Iraq so that they can be engaged in other spots, not only in Afghanistan.
The worst course of action would be to diminish the force in Iraq while encouraging Iran and Syria — directly or indirectly — to “assume responsibilities” on Iraqi land. This would be known by historians as suicide. In the end, all is in the hands of President Obama. If he has a global plan to restlessly wage campaigns against Jihadi powers and forces around the world while winning a war of ideas, the 2010 plan for Iraq will be a stunning move. But if all efforts of the Administration are to pull out from the confrontation with the Jihadists, following the advice of the failed academia of the past, the announced plan will be no more than the beginning of the retreat. I truly hope the vision in the oval office will meet the harsh realities of today’s world.
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Dr Walid Phares is the Director of the Future Terrorism Project the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the author of The Confrontation: Winning the War against Future Jihad.
Tonight
Christmas With The Troops
About a week ago I was asked by a Solider in Afghanistan what I thought
about doing a blogtalk radio show for the troops. A show that the
guys who are way from home this Christmas could send in messages and
have them read, request
songs and hear greetings from home.
Instantly I was smiling.
One I was thrilled with the idea and two honored that those who are serving
would ask me to be involved. They had already contacted one host
and I was able to help bring 2 other shows on board with this project.
I
want to thank the man who's idea this was,
Cpt Kevin, for not only thinking of this but for involving me.
Please if you can join us... it should be a fun and touching evening.
Three Blog Talk Radio shows are banding together to air a six hour
Christmas show that is all for the troops:
are going to broadcast back to back to back on Monday December 22nd
starting at 6pm CST for our men and women in Iraq, Afghanistan
and any of our military who will not be home with family this holiday season.
The show will include music, guest and reading messages from and to the troops.
to their families to us that will be read over the air (internet).
(All emails will be deleted after the messages are saved.)
We will also have some celebrity
guests coming on to send a
message to the “guys”.
Not meaning to drop any names but so far we have:
Tim Colceri The psycho door gunner from Full Metal Jacket
and Founder
of Fueled by the Fallen
http://www.fueledbythefallen.com/
Video Above: Footage of Marines preforming a special reading of "The Night Before Christmas" to the families of the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit. Provided by 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit Public Affairs. Posted on Youtube by dvidshub
Cross Posted From DVIDS
Headquarters 18th Airborne Corps Public Affairs
14 Dec 2008 Baghdad IQ
B-roll of troops reactions to President George W. Bush's speech to them in Iraq. Scenes include Gen. Odierno introducing the President, President Bush speaking at the podium, reaction shots and Bush shaking hands with troops s they applaud him. Also see "Spc. Whitfield, 1st Lt. Benson, Capt. Howell, 1st Lt. Butel" in the interview section.
President George W. Bush reaches to shake as many hands as possible as he meets with U.S. military and diplomatic personnel Sunday, Dec, 14, 2008, at the Al Faw Palace-Camp Victory in Baghdad. White House photo by Eric Draper President George W. Bush reaches to shake as many hands as possible as he meets with U.S. military and diplomatic personnel Sunday, Dec, 14, 2008, at the Al Faw Palace-Camp Victory in Baghdad. White House photo by Eric Draper
Fact Sheet: The Strategic Framework Agreement and the Security Agreement with Iraq
The United States and the government of Iraq have negotiated two historic agreements: a Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA) that covers our overall political, economic, and security relationship with Iraq, and a Security Agreement – otherwise known as the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) – that implements our security relationship.
Both agreements protect U.S. interests in the Middle East, help the Iraqi people stand on their own, and reinforce Iraqi sovereignty.
The SFA normalizes the U.S.-Iraqi relationship with strong economic, diplomatic, cultural, and security ties – and serves as the foundation for a long-term bilateral relationship based on mutual goals.
The Security Agreement guides our security relationship with Iraq and governs the U.S. presence, activities, and eventual withdrawal from Iraq. This agreement ensures vital protections for U.S. troops and provides operational authorities for our forces so we can help sustain the positive security trends as we continue to transition to a supporting role.
The Success Of The Surge And The Courage Of The Iraqi People Set The Conditions For These Historic Negotiations
The sustained security gains and increasing capacity and confidence of the Iraqi government and the Iraqi Security Forces are reasons the United States and the Iraqis were able to negotiate these agreements.
These Agreements are what our troops have been fighting for and working toward: the moment when Iraqis could begin taking responsibility for security and governance on their own – something they could not have done two years ago.
To Ensure That The Security Agreement Is Consistent With The Capacity Of Iraq's Security Forces, The Dates Included In This Agreement Were Discussed With The Iraqis, General Petraeus, And General Odierno – They Allow For The Continued Transition Of Security Responsibilities To The Iraqis
As we further transition security responsibilities to the Iraqi Security Forces, military commanders will continue to move U.S. combat forces out of major populated areas so that they are all out by June 30, 2009.
The Security Agreement also sets a date of December 31, 2011, for all U.S. forces to withdraw from Iraq. This date reflects the increasing capacity of the Iraqi Security Forces as demonstrated in operations this year throughout Iraq, as well as an improved regional atmosphere towards Iraq, an expanding Iraqi economy, and an increasingly confident Iraqi government.
These dates therefore are based on an assessment of positive conditions on the ground and a realistic projection of when U.S. forces can reduce their presence and return home without a sacrificing the security gains made since the surge.
The Security Agreement Will Protect The United States And Our Troops And Incorporates The Visions Of An Independent And Bipartisan Commission
U.S. soldiers and civilians on the ground will continue to have uninterrupted and essential protections while serving in Iraq. Our troops will also continue to have essential operational authorities to sustain positive security trends seen in Iraq over the past year.
The Security Agreement also reflects the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group’s recommendation that the Security Agreement include authorities for the United States to continue fighting al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations in Iraq, continued support for Iraqi Security Forces, and political reassurances to the government of Iraq.
These Agreements Will Advance A Stable Iraq In The Heart Of The Middle East
The SFA and Security Agreement with Iraq move us closer to the strategic vision we all hope for in the Middle East: a region of independent states, at peace with one another, fully participating in the global market of goods and ideas, and an ally in the War on Terror.
The SFA implements the Iraqi and U.S. desire for a long-term relationship based on cooperation and friendship as set out in the Declaration of Principles signed in November 2007. The SFA also includes commitments on:
- Defense, security, law enforcement, and judicial cooperation and development.
- Further improvement of political, diplomatic, and cultural cooperation.
- Economic, energy, health, environment, technology, and communications cooperation.
- Joint Coordination Committees to monitor the implementation of the SFA.
- The SFA and Security Agreement do not tie the hands of the next President. This package provides a solid foundation for the next President to pursue a full range of policy options with Iraq.
The SFA And Security Agreement Are The Final Steps In Iraq's Request For Normalized Relations
In a Communiqué issued on August 26, 2007, Iraq’s five principal political leaders – Prime Minister Maliki, President Talabani, Vice Presidents Hashimi and Abd al-Mahdi, and Kurdistan Regional Government President Barzani – requested an end to Chapter VII status under the U.N. Security Council and the establishment of a long-term relationship with the United States.
This led to the U.S.- Iraq Declaration of Principles signed on November 26, 2007, which laid out a "table of contents" that the United States and Iraq would discuss in official negotiations. Bilateral negotiations began in earnest in March 2008.
The SFA and Security Agreement, which are the result of the Communiqué and the Declaration of Principles, were approved by the Iraqi Cabinet and the Council of Representatives on November 27, 2008. On December 4, Iraq’s three-person Presidency Council endorsed the COR’s vote
David Bellavia 2/2 Infantry U.S Army was awarded a silver and bronze star for bravery and recommended for the Medal of Honour. Bellavia would get ambushed while on house to house searches and his squad suffered casualties. This true story shows that war is brutal and these men who fight for our freedom should be recognized as true heroes.
The blurred British man speaking is former SAS soldier Andy Mcnab involved in the first gulf war responsible for taking out scud launchers aimed at Saudi Arabia and Israel. He is famous for the 'Bravo two zero' mission during operation desert storm.
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| By Jim Garamone American Forces Press Service |
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WASHINGTON, Dec. 11, 2008 – Without American sacrifices in Iraq, the
country would still be under the rule of a brutal dictator, said Dr.
Ali Al-Dabbagh, spokesman for the Iraqi government. Al-Dabbagh spoke with Pentagon reporters today and said the sacrifices of American service members made it possible to overthrow “a brutal government for 35 years which destroyed Iraq and the region. We never dreamed we would get rid of Saddam, because Saddam was planning even his grandson to rule Iraq.” The spokesman said that “all the expression of thanks to the Americans to appreciate what they did was not enough.”The other thing to realize is that Americans fighting in Iraq are also defending their homeland and making the region safer, Al-Dabbagh said. Al-Qaida is a danger not only in Iraq, but throughout the region and internationally. “As an example, what happened in Afghanistan made an attack on New York,” he said. “Iraq could slip down and then a group could attack London or Washington.” Al-Qaida terrorists are “devil enemies” who have attacked the length and breadth of the Arab world and internationally, Al-Dabbagh said. “All the region needs to be united in fighting such devil enemies,” he said. Al-Dabbagh addressed a suicide bomb in Kirkuk today that killed at least 45 people. “We do need to work on the Kirkuk issue in a wise way and a quiet way,” he said. Kirkuk is a complicated mix of people and an oil-rich area. Every ethnic background and religious sect needs to buy in to any settlement in the region, Al-Dabbagh said. “We do need to give ourselves more time to eliminate sources of tension, so we can have a census in the region,” he said. Al-Dabbagh said Iran has been cooperative and seems to have stopped sending ordnance and fighters into Iraq. “Iran has shown a positive stance since last year even,” he said, adding that the assurances that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki gave Iranian leaders seems to have made a difference. He said the Iranians “finally realize” that the status of forces agreement between the United States and Iraq poses no threat to Iran. “The Iranians should be our good neighbor and should not interfere in our affairs,” he said. The Iranians also have expressed an interest in solving long-term problems between the two countries such as disputes over the Shatt-al-Arab waterway that is Iraq’s sole access to the Persian Gulf. Al-Dabbagh called for the new U.S. administration to engage in “deep dialogue” with Iran, but he called on Iran to respect international law. “In order for Iran to be a good partner in the region they should respect international law and refrain from interfering not only in Iraq, but the region,” he said. Al-Dabbagh also clarified the Iraqi position on the status of forces agreement. He said that the Iraqis understand that building the security forces will take longer than the three years covered by the current agreement, which goes into effect Jan. 1, and runs through the end of 2011. At that time, all U.S. troops should be out of the country. However, there still will be a need for trainers, logisticians and so on, which will be negotiated in an agreement in 2011, Al-Dabbagh said. On Jan. 1, the U.S. rules of engagement will change. In the first six months of 2009, U.S. combat forces will move from the cities and towns into camps outside them, Al-Dabbagh said. The Iraqi police and army will have the lead for operations in these urban areas. They will set up operations in the areas and sometimes those operations will include U.S. servicemembers and sometimes they will not, he said. Sometimes, the operations will comprise mostly Americans, but still only with the permission of Iraqi authorities. The U.S. forces will not have the permission to kick down doors as they do now, he said. With Iraqi forces in the lead and handling most of the operations, this will reduce friction between the coalition and the Iraqi people. “It will be better for the American troops and better for us,” he said of the agreement. |
ARMY.MIL - Spc. Darnell Pitts and Spc. Kane Strait to Alaska; 2nd
Lt. Steve Caldwell, Maj. Rob Gibbs and Pfc. Brian Shore to Washington;
Spc. Scott Isaac, Sgt. Benjamin Kissell and Spc. Sean New to Oregon;
Sgt. Christopher Bandini, Cpt. Edward Barboza, Sgt. Lisett Castillo and
Spc. Francisco Rodriguez to California; Pfc. Joseph Ryan to Idaho; Pvt.
Jered Belloli and Sgt. Charles Pallas to Nevada; Spc. Roy Aja and Pfc.
Jesse Holder to Arizona; Spc. David Allen and Sgt. Brandon Cole to
Colorado; Sgt. Kimberly Doan to South Dakota; Spc. Matthew Cole to
Nebraska; Sgt. Goncalves to Kansas; Staff. Sgt Davaras Bronson and Spc.
Shawna Dilbeck to Oklahoma; Capt. Chris Kline and Capt. Cheryl
Wachenheim to Minnesota;
by Sgt Smith
Nov. 23, 2008
I will start this out being very blunt. Fuck doubters, haters, naysayers, MSM, Liberal fucktards, Berkley faggots, and anybody else who talks shit on the efforts of what we were doing, what we are doing, or what we will do.
There is a small town that in within my AO that I get the pleasure to go to everyonce in a while. This town is very small, surrounded by palm groves. These people are far away from any major city. It is the most professional IP station I have ever visited. They have their IP station with all their trucks staged nice and neat and clean, clearly marked. They have their command building sectioned off into different responsiblities, IE: Admin, Intel, Ops, Supply. This city has been built up by the hard work of its’ people and it’s Police force. The IP Chief isn’t like any other Iraqi that I’ve ever encountered. We told him that he needs to try to roll up any bad guys who drive by his town and asked him what he needs in return for his good deeds. Other IP stations would have asked for anything and everything. He said he didn’t need anything, just knowing that he was taking bad people away from his city and out of his country was all he needed. The city has city-wide get togethers where they go and pick up all the trash from the city to make it look nice, not like other cities where as long as it isn’t in your house it’s not your problem. The IP’s have the highest level of motivation and professionalism I have ever witnessed. Their city is at such a high level of security that they are putting together a business proposal to set up a hotel and restaurant near a natural spring where Jesus is said to have once swam. As well as a different business proposal to set up a hunting lodge where people can go hunting for exotic birds, wild boar and go fishing in near by fresh water springs. But……. you’ll never probably read anything like this anywhere else, because, the death rates are up in Afghanistan, and the US is doing strikes in Pakistan, and Obama is the first elected black president in US history. I haven’t fired a round since september of last year on my last deployment, over 4 months!! We haven’t even done so much as an escalation of force in my platoon. But… that doesn’t give anybody the NVG firefight video’s or the contraversy of an innocent civilian being wounded or an insurgent that’s been wounded being shot again to finish him off. Is there still shit going on over here? Absolutely. When I can pick up a Marine Times from the PX and only read the names of 2 KIA for 2 weeks, that’s when I think the media should be at an all time high, out here interviewing the troops, interviewing the people to see how they feel. Not still doing reports from the “green zone”. They need to stop being pussies and see what’s going on now, granted, they won’t have to worry about taking cover or having snipers singling them out because of their press flaks and kevlars. But this is when we need to show the world what’s going on over here.
Hey hey, it’s me, been gone for a bit, been busy, as usual, but loving every minute of it. A few things to talk about this evening (2330 Iraqistan time). Where to start… Development of the Iraqi Army. Every morning, after breakfast, as I’m drinking a cup of the slop they call coffee out here, I look over to the IA side of the base, and for the last month I see the IA out doing various things. They might be a little ragged around the edges but they are military in nature. I see them doing close order drill, or their own variation of it. Working on crossing danger area’s and other urban movements. Even PTing on their own, as a unit. It’s pretty amazing.
Next things next. Throughout our meetings with IP Chief’s, Sheikhs, and other city/GOI leaders, I have found myself becoming more animated and emotional about what is going on with them and their city. For a week or two it puzzled me as to why I was getting so attached to it, and then one night while I was “chillin” in my room listening to some Jack Johnson, and it hit me. I’m on my fourth deployment to this country, and it’s growing on me. I knew that it would and that it has, but it never made sense until the other night. Now, I’m not a father but I imagine this to be a somewhat similar situation. I’ve been working on this little project called OIF for over 2 years now and I’ve put alot of heart and emotion into what has happened here. I’ve been through ups and downs out here. My first two deployments were heavily ridden in combat, but even with that we still focused on the people. My last deployment I treated 14 Iraqi trauma’s from insurgent activity. Now I’m out here as a political advisor. I’ve just put so much into this country that I never want to see it fail, if it does then I fail. I fail those who have gone before me and beside me. That is not an option, but it’s so hard to see things happening, and only being able to “advise” it’s like when our ROE’s started getting tightened, but instead of killing bad guys it’s holding us back from helping the good. I want to be able to help these guys just to see their country do well. It’s with a bit of selfishness though I think. I can look at something I’ve made, and saying, wow that’s amazing, and it means more because I’ve made it. I know that these people need to look at their things and feel the same way. This country just cannot fail. There has been a trend, and to the other branches don’t take offense to this just take it for what it is, facts. Somalia, US Marines sent to quell the uprising, sent away, NATO brought in, fucked it up, Army sent in, and we all know how that went. Afghanistan, Marines sent in hooking and jabbing getting some, Marines sent away, NATO brought in, fucked it up, request that Marines come back to help them fight an even harder more intense fight than what they left. We can’t allow this to happen here, not with the countries around Iraq. All over the place tonite, sorry about that, I need to take a class on organizing your thoughts I think. Alright, Semper Fi, take care, laters!
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